RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
BundesligaRound 12
RB Leipzig15:30
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FSV Mainz 05Most likelyRB Leipzig win · 57%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: RB Leipzig win
Oddbert gives RB Leipzig a 57% chance of winning.
57%RB Leipzig
23%Draw
20%FSV Mainz 05
In 100 matches like this, RB Leipzig would win about 57. In the other 43 or so, RB Leipzig doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: RB Leipzig win 57, Draw 23, FSV Mainz 05 win 20.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
57%1RB LeipzigRB Leipzig win
23%XDrawDraw
20%2FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05 win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
RB Leipzig meet FSV Mainz 05. The model leans toward RB Leipzig, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for RB Leipzig (57%), doesn't happen in about 43 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
RB Leipzig
- W5-2FA
- L2-3MC
- W2-0FS0
- W4-0SE
- L1-4RM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FSV Mainz 05
- L1-2BM
- L1-4SE
- L2-3WB
- W1-0FS0
- L3-4BL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
RB Leipzig
Absence data is not available for this match.
FSV Mainz 05
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
RB Leipzig 2Draws 0FSV Mainz 05 2
- RL 1-2 FM0
- FM0 0-1 RL
- RL 1-2 FM0
- FM0 0-2 RL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
RB Leipzig
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- A. Nusa4G 7A10 apps
- C. Nkunku5G 2A8 apps
- B. Gruda1G 5A9 apps
FSV Mainz 05
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.06last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.69last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 13.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- P. Tietz7G 1A10 apps
- A. Caci3G 3A10 apps
- S. Becker2G 4A10 apps
Line movement
RB Leipzig—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FSV Mainz 05—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward RB Leipzig, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Pi-rating edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)7.54Pi-rating edge0.49Expected goals (home)2.66Defensive xG form (away)1.64Attacking xG form (home)1.80What's at stake (home)0.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.