RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 2Leipzig Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig21:00
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
PSV EindhovenMost likelyRB Leipzig win · 52%
Best price1.81 Onexbet
Prediction
52%1RB Leipzigmarket 55%
22%XDrawmarket 21%
26%2PSV Eindhovenmarket 24%
RB Leipzig-3.0 ppDraw+0.9 ppPSV Eindhoven+2.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | RB Leipzigpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | PSV Eindhovenpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.40 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Betvictor | 1.73 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 4.50 | 3.96 |
| Onexbet | 1.81best | 4.62 | 4.07best |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 4.71best | 3.90 |
| Sbo | 1.71 | 3.88 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — RB Leipzig at 1.81 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
RB Leipzig
- W6-0EF
- L0-2BL
- W5-0HS
- L1-4COM
- L1-3WB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PSV Eindhoven
- W2-0HEE
- L2-3TWE
- W4-1SR
- D1-1SD
- W3-1AJA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
RB Leipzig
No reported absences.
PSV Eindhoven
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
RB Leipzig
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.53last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.75last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.40last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.1last 10
- Shots
- 18.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Nick Walsh
- Yellows / game
- 0.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Venue
- Venue
- Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Line movement
RB Leipzig—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a RB Leipzig result here, shaped mainly by Recent form (away) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (away)6.54Attacking xG form (home)2.81Defensive xG form (home)2.42Home advantage (team-tuned)96.6Fixture congestion (away)1.00Attacking xG form (away)2.43
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.