Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction
La LigaRound 14
Real Madrid17:00
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AlavesMost likelyReal Madrid win · 76%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Real Madrid win
Oddbert gives Real Madrid a 76% chance of winning.
76%Real Madrid
16%Draw
8%Alaves
In 100 matches like this, Real Madrid would win about 76. In the other 24 or so, Real Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Real Madrid win 76, Draw 16, Alaves win 8.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
76%1Real MadridReal Madrid win
16%XDrawDraw
8%2AlavesAlaves win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Real Madrid meet Alaves. The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Real Madrid (76%), doesn't happen in about 24 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Real Madrid
- W3-0VAL
- W3-2AAF
- W3-0RS
- W2-1BAR
- W4-1RL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Alaves
- D0-0SEV
- L1-6BAR
- D1-1MAL
- L1-2CV
- L1-2AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Real Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Alaves
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Real Madrid 4Draws 0Alaves 0
- RM 2-1 ALA
- ALA 1-2 RM
- ALA 0-1 RM
- RM 3-2 ALA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Real Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Kylian Mbappé10G 2A10 apps
- Y. Diomande4G 4A10 apps
- A. Güler3G 4A9 apps
Alaves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.04last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- L. Boyé5G 0A10 apps
- M. Díaz2G 2A10 apps
- Angel Pérez0G 3A9 apps
Line movement
Real Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Alaves—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.71Home advantage (team-tuned)134Attacking xG form (home)2.81Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)522League id140What's at stake (home)0.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.