Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Real Madrid21:00
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
PSV EindhovenMost likelyReal Madrid win · 77%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Real Madrid win
Oddbert gives Real Madrid a 77% chance of winning.
77%Real Madrid
12%Draw
11%PSV Eindhoven
In 100 matches like this, Real Madrid would win about 77. In the other 23 or so, Real Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Real Madrid win 77, Draw 12, PSV Eindhoven win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
77%1Real MadridReal Madrid win
12%XDrawDraw
11%2PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Real Madrid meet PSV Eindhoven. The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Real Madrid (77%), doesn't happen in about 23 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Real Madrid
- W3-0VAL
- W3-2AAF
- W3-0RS
- W2-1BAR
- W4-1RL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PSV Eindhoven
- W5-2CAM
- L1-2CBK
- W7-0WI
- D1-1FEY
- W1-0FP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Real Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
PSV Eindhoven
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Real Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Kylian Mbappé10G 2A10 apps
- Y. Diomande4G 4A10 apps
- A. Güler3G 4A9 apps
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- S. Mijnans8G 2A9 apps
- G. Til6G 1A10 apps
- E. Bajraktarevic0G 5A8 apps
Line movement
Real Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Expected goals (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.51Expected goals (home)3.20Pi-rating edge0.35Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)301Attacking xG form (home)2.81What's at stake (away)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.