Rennes vs Strasbourg prediction
Ligue 1Round 8Roazhon Park
Rennes17:15
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
StrasbourgMost likelyRennes win · 55%
Best price1.74 Onexbet
Prediction
55%1Rennesmarket 58%
24%XDrawmarket 21%
21%2Strasbourgmarket 21%
Rennes-3.0 ppDraw+2.4 ppStrasbourg+0.6 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Rennespays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Strasbourgpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.25 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 4.40 | 4.45 |
| Onexbet | 1.74best | 4.52best | 4.58best |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.35 | 4.43 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Rennes at 1.74 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Rennes
- W4-1AUX
- L0-4LYO
- W1-0MAR
- W2-1ANG
- W3-2LM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Strasbourg
- L1-2NIC
- L1-2PF
- D1-1MON
- W6-2ET
- W2-1LEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Rennes
No reported absences.
Strasbourg
No reported absences.
Head to head
Rennes 3Draws 0Strasbourg 1
- STR 0-3 REN
- REN 4-1 STR
- REN 1-0 STR
- STR 3-1 REN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Rennes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.23last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.7last 10
- Shots
- 16.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Strasbourg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.75last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Roazhon Park, Rennes
Line movement
Rennes—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Strasbourg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Rennes result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)5.25Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)173Attacking xG form (home)2.02Recent form (home)7.26Away form (away)4.34Pi-rating edge0.19
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.