Rio Ave vs Casa Pia prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13
Rio Ave17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Casa PiaMost likelyRio Ave win · 40%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Rio Ave win
Oddbert gives Rio Ave a 40% chance of winning.
40%Rio Ave
22%Draw
38%Casa Pia
In 100 matches like this, Rio Ave would win about 40. In the other 60 or so, Rio Ave doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Rio Ave win 40, Draw 22, Casa Pia win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
40%1Rio AveRio Ave win
22%XDrawDraw
38%2Casa PiaCasa Pia win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Rio Ave (40%), doesn't happen in about 60 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Rio Ave
- L0-1SB
- L1-2AV
- L0-4FAM
- W3-2NAC
- L0-1ALV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Casa Pia
- D1-1ALV
- L0-2SC
- W2-0EST
- L0-1SC
- W2-1EST
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Rio Ave
Absence data is not available for this match.
Casa Pia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Rio Ave 1Draws 2Casa Pia 1
- CP 1-1 RA
- RA 3-1 CP
- CP 2-1 RA
- RA 2-2 CP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Rio Ave
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.75last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.76last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 7.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 9
Key players
- J. Blesa3G 1A10 apps
- Diogo Bezerra1G 3A10 apps
- S. Clemmensen1G 1A7 apps
Casa Pia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.83last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.60last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 10.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- Henrique Araújo1G 2A10 apps
- Silvi2G 0A9 apps
- L. Ofori1G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Rio Ave—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Casa Pia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Rio Ave result here; the model's main factors are What's at stake (home) and Attacking xG form (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.20Attacking xG form (home)0.82What's at stake (away)0.21Expected goals (home)1.27Defensive xG form (away)1.20League id94.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.