Rio Ave vs Famalicao prediction
Primeira LigaRound 9
Rio Ave19:00
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FamalicaoMost likelyFamalicao win · 47%
Best price1.93 Betano
Prediction
27%1Rio Avemarket 22%
26%XDrawmarket 27%
47%2Famalicaomarket 51%
Rio Ave+4.3 ppDraw-0.4 ppFamalicao-3.8 pp
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Rio Avepays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Famalicaopays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.93best |
| Betfair | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
| Onexbet | 4.28best | 3.65best | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Famalicao at 1.93 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Rio Ave
- W3-2NAC
- L0-1ALV
- D3-3EST
- L0-4SC
- L0-4SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Famalicao
- W4-0NAC
- D1-1SC
- D2-2EST
- D0-0GV
- L0-1SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Rio Ave
No reported absences.
Famalicao
No reported absences.
Head to head
Rio Ave 0Draws 3Famalicao 1
- RA 0-0 FAM
- FAM 0-0 RA
- FAM 1-0 RA
- RA 1-1 FAM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Rio Ave
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.63last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.86last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.5last 10
- Shots
- 7.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Famalicao
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.09last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Line movement
Rio Ave—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Famalicao—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Famalicao result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Rest-days edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-148Rest-days edge-22.0Home advantage (team-tuned)23.9Defensive xG form (home)3.25Pi-rating edge-0.61Recent form (home)3.34
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.