Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction
Primeira LigaRound 9
Santa Clara19:45
Mon 26 Oct
Prediction T-24h
BenficaMost likelyBenfica win · 56%
Best price1.46 Onexbet
Prediction
21%1Santa Claramarket 11%
23%XDrawmarket 20%
56%2Benficamarket 69%
Santa Clara+9.9 ppDraw+3.2 ppBenfica-13.0 pp
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Santa Clarapays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | Benficapays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 7.80 | 4.50 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 8.00best | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Marathonbet | 7.70 | 4.55 | 1.38 |
| Onexbet | 7.90 | 4.58best | 1.46best |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Benfica at 1.46 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Santa Clara
- W1-0CP
- D0-0SB
- W2-1ARO
- W4-0RA
- D1-1ALV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Benfica
- W2-0VS
- L1-3FP
- W3-1GV
- W4-0MOR
- W3-0MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Santa Clara
No reported absences.
Benfica
No reported absences.
Head to head
Santa Clara 0Draws 1Benfica 3
- SC 1-2 BEN
- BEN 1-1 SC
- SC 0-1 BEN
- BEN 4-1 SC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Santa Clara
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.17last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.62last 9
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.7last 9
Benfica
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.66last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.9last 10
- Shots
- 20.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- H. Sudakov1G 0A1 apps
- Samuel Dahl1G 0A1 apps
- C. Echeverri0G 1A1 apps
Line movement
Santa Clara—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Benfica—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Benfica result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.93Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-174Attacking xG form (away)2.18Recent form (home)7.30League id94.0Defensive xG form (home)0.49
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.