Santa Clara vs FC Porto prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13
Santa Clara17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FC PortoMost likelyFC Porto win · 66%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: FC Porto win
Oddbert gives FC Porto a 66% chance of winning.
11%Santa Clara
23%Draw
66%FC Porto
In 100 matches like this, FC Porto would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, FC Porto doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Santa Clara win 11, Draw 23, FC Porto win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
11%1Santa ClaraSanta Clara win
23%XDrawDraw
66%2FC PortoFC Porto win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for FC Porto (66%), doesn't happen in about 34 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Santa Clara
- L1-2GV
- W2-0MAR
- L1-2BEN
- W1-0CP
- D0-0SB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FC Porto
- W2-1VS
- W4-1NAP
- W4-0EST
- W1-0GV
- L0-1PE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Santa Clara
Absence data is not available for this match.
FC Porto
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Santa Clara 0Draws 1FC Porto 3
- FP 1-0 SC
- SC 0-1 FP
- FP 1-1 SC
- SC 0-2 FP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Santa Clara
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.17last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.93last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.4last 10
- Shots
- 12.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 13.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.2last 10
Key players
- Gonçalo Paciência3G 1A8 apps
- Vinícius Lopes2G 1A10 apps
- Tiago Ribeiro2G 0A9 apps
FC Porto
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.15last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 15.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Gabri Veiga4G 3A10 apps
- Borja Sainz4G 1A10 apps
- André Silva2G 2A10 apps
Line movement
Santa Clara—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FC Porto—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a FC Porto result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.80Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-210What's at stake (away)0.19Attacking xG form (away)2.02Expected goals (home)0.60Attacking xG form (home)0.94
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.