SC Braga vs Arouca prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13
SC Braga17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AroucaMost likelySC Braga win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: SC Braga win
Oddbert gives SC Braga a 56% chance of winning.
56%SC Braga
21%Draw
23%Arouca
In 100 matches like this, SC Braga would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, SC Braga doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: SC Braga win 56, Draw 21, Arouca win 23.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
56%1SC BragaSC Braga win
21%XDrawDraw
23%2AroucaArouca win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for SC Braga (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SC Braga
- W1-0RA
- D0-0AAR
- W3-0FAM
- L0-1NAC
- W2-0GEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arouca
- L0-1FAM
- W1-0NAC
- W1-0ALV
- W1-0EST
- D2-2SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SC Braga
Absence data is not available for this match.
Arouca
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
SC Braga 4Draws 0Arouca 0
- SB 1-0 ARO
- ARO 0-4 SB
- SB 2-1 ARO
- ARO 1-2 SB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SC Braga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.41last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 14.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Víctor Gómez1G 2A10 apps
- Pau Victor2G 0A10 apps
- Ricardo Horta2G 0A10 apps
Arouca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.03last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Key players
- N. Djouahra0G 5A10 apps
- Barbero4G 0A10 apps
- José Fontán2G 0A10 apps
Line movement
SC Braga—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arouca—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a SC Braga result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.75Attacking xG form (home)1.73Fixture congestion (home)0.00What's at stake (away)0.17Defensive xG form (home)0.59Home form (home)8.64
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.