SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction
BundesligaRound 12
SC Freiburg15:30
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
1899 HoffenheimMost likelySC Freiburg win · 54%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: SC Freiburg win
Oddbert gives SC Freiburg a 54% chance of winning.
54%SC Freiburg
24%Draw
22%1899 Hoffenheim
In 100 matches like this, SC Freiburg would win about 54. In the other 46 or so, SC Freiburg doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: SC Freiburg win 54, Draw 24, 1899 Hoffenheim win 22.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
54%1SC FreiburgSC Freiburg win
24%XDrawDraw
22%21899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
SC Freiburg meet 1899 Hoffenheim. The model leans toward SC Freiburg, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for SC Freiburg (54%), doesn't happen in about 46 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SC Freiburg
- W2-0UB
- W1-0TRA
- W2-1FA
- L1-3BM
- L0-3MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
1899 Hoffenheim
- W2-1FS0
- D1-1CP
- L0-2WB
- W3-0BL
- W3-0LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SC Freiburg
Absence data is not available for this match.
1899 Hoffenheim
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
SC Freiburg 1Draws 21899 Hoffenheim 1
- 1H 3-0 SF
- SF 1-1 1H
- SF 3-2 1H
- 1H 1-1 SF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SC Freiburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.62last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.14last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- D. Scherhant2G 3A9 apps
- M. Eggestein3G 0A10 apps
- I. Matanović3G 0A10 apps
1899 Hoffenheim
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.70last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 14.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- A. Kramarić2G 3A10 apps
- A. Prass3G 1A7 apps
- F. Asllani2G 2A10 apps
Line movement
SC Freiburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
1899 Hoffenheim—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward SC Freiburg, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.62Expected goals (away)1.46Expected goals (home)2.23Fixture congestion (home)0.00Home advantage (team-tuned)91.8Attacking xG form (away)1.95
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.