SC Freiburg vs Bayern München prediction
BundesligaRound 7
SC Freiburg17:30
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Bayern MünchenMost likelyBayern München win · 72%
Best price1.42 Onexbet
Prediction
12%1SC Freiburgmarket 11%
16%XDrawmarket 14%
72%2Bayern Münchenmarket 75%
SC Freiburg+1.6 ppDraw+1.4 ppBayern München-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | SC Freiburgpays 6% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Bayern Münchenpays 9% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 5.75 | 1.30 |
| Betano | 8.00 | 6.00 | 1.32 |
| Marathonbet | 8.50best | 6.40best | 1.30 |
| Onexbet | 6.77 | 6.16 | 1.42best |
| William Hill | 8.00 | 5.80 | 1.29 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bayern München at 1.42 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
15.21units · 1.5% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FS0
- D2-2EF
- W5-0BM
- W1-0SP0
- W4-1WB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bayern München
- D2-2FA
- W7-0UB
- W2-1SE
- W5-0BOD
- D0-0FS0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SC Freiburg
No reported absences.
Bayern München
No reported absences.
Head to head
SC Freiburg 0Draws 0Bayern München 4
- SF 2-3 BM
- BM 6-2 SF
- SF 1-2 BM
- BM 2-0 SF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SC Freiburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.55last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Bayern München
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.92last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.5last 10
- Shots
- 21.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 8.6last 10
- Fouls
- 8.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Line movement
SC Freiburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bayern München—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bayern München result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.41Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-219Attacking xG form (away)4.54Attacking xG form (home)2.07Home advantage (team-tuned)72.5Recent form (away)6.92
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.