SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec prediction
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 1
SC Freiburg21:00
Thu 15 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FK JablonecMost likelySC Freiburg win · 76%
Best price1.26 Betano
Prediction
76%1SC Freiburgmarket 80%
17%XDrawmarket 14%
7%2FK Jablonecmarket 6%
SC Freiburg-3.9 ppDraw+3.2 ppFK Jablonec+0.7 pp
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | SC Freiburgpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | FK Jablonecpays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.26best | 6.50best | 13.00best |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.21 | 5.90 | 12.75 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — SC Freiburg at 1.26 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FS0
- D2-2EF
- W5-0BM
- W1-0SP0
- W4-1WB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FK Jablonec
- W1-0RAN
- L0-1RAN
- W2-1RF
- W2-0RF
- W2-0NV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SC Freiburg
No reported absences.
FK Jablonec
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SC Freiburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.56last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 8
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 16.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
FK Jablonec
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 6
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 6
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 6
- BTTS
- 2 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 4
- Shots
- 10.5last 2
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 4
- Fouls
- 12.5last 4
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 4
Referee profile
- Referee
- E. Malcevs
- Yellows / game
- 4.0
- Matches officiated
- 4
Line movement
SC Freiburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FK Jablonec—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a SC Freiburg result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)534Pi-rating edge0.54Recent form (away)7.70Attacking xG form (home)2.07Defensive xG form (away)1.96Home form (home)11.2
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.