SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig prediction
BundesligaRound 11
SC Freiburg15:30
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
RB LeipzigMost likelySC Freiburg win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: SC Freiburg win
Oddbert gives SC Freiburg a 44% chance of winning.
44%SC Freiburg
26%Draw
30%RB Leipzig
In 100 matches like this, SC Freiburg would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, SC Freiburg doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: SC Freiburg win 44, Draw 26, RB Leipzig win 30.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1SC FreiburgSC Freiburg win
26%XDrawDraw
30%2RB LeipzigRB Leipzig win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
SC Freiburg meet RB Leipzig. The model leans only slightly toward SC Freiburg in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for SC Freiburg (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SC Freiburg
- W2-0UB
- W1-0TRA
- W2-1FA
- L1-3BM
- L0-3MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
RB Leipzig
- W5-2FA
- L2-3MC
- W2-0FS0
- W4-0SE
- L1-4RM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SC Freiburg
Absence data is not available for this match.
RB Leipzig
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
SC Freiburg 1Draws 1RB Leipzig 2
- SF 4-1 RL
- RL 2-0 SF
- SF 0-0 RL
- RL 3-1 SF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SC Freiburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.62last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.14last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- D. Scherhant2G 3A9 apps
- M. Eggestein3G 0A10 apps
- I. Matanović3G 0A10 apps
RB Leipzig
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- A. Nusa4G 7A10 apps
- C. Nkunku5G 2A8 apps
- B. Gruda1G 5A9 apps
Line movement
SC Freiburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
RB Leipzig—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward SC Freiburg in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Attacking xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.78Attacking xG form (away)1.80What's at stake (away)0.17Pi-rating edge0.39What's at stake (home)0.15Expected goals (away)1.78
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.