SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction
BundesligaRound 7
SC Paderborn 0715:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Hamburger SVMost likelySC Paderborn 07 win · 39%
Best price2.36 Onexbet
Prediction
39%1SC Paderborn 07market 42%
27%XDrawmarket 24%
34%2Hamburger SVmarket 34%
SC Paderborn 07-3.0 ppDraw+3.0 ppHamburger SV+0.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | SC Paderborn 07pays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Hamburger SVpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.90 | 2.82 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.95 | 2.80 |
| Onexbet | 2.36best | 4.00best | 2.92best |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — SC Paderborn 07 at 2.36 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SC Paderborn 07
- L0-2VS
- W3-11H
- L0-3BD
- L0-1SF
- D0-0FM0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Hamburger SV
- W3-21H
- W2-11FK
- L0-5RL
- L0-5FM0
- L0-2BD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SC Paderborn 07
No reported absences.
Hamburger SV
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SC Paderborn 07
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 7
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 7
- xG for / game
- 0.92last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.64last 5
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 7
- BTTS
- 2 / 7
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 7
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.1last 7
- Shots
- 16.0last 7
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 7
- Fouls
- 11.0last 7
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 7
Hamburger SV
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.70last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.4last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Line movement
SC Paderborn 07—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Hamburger SV—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a SC Paderborn 07 result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)2.98Pi-rating edge0.25What's at stake (away)0.17Away form (away)4.72Recent form (home)2.82Attacking xG form (away)1.75
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.