Serbia vs Germany prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 5Rajko Mitić Stadion
Serbia20:45
Fri 13 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
GermanyMost likelyGermany win · 74%
Best price1.30 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Germany win
Oddbert gives Germany a 74% chance of winning.
11%Serbia
15%Draw
74%Germany
In 100 matches like this, Germany would win about 74. In the other 26 or so, Germany doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Serbia win 11, Draw 15, Germany win 74.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
11%1SerbiaSerbia winmarket 9%
15%XDrawDrawmarket 14%
74%2GermanyGermany winmarket 77%
Our model vs market
Serbia +2.2 ppDraw +1.3 ppGermany -3.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Serbia meet Germany. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Germany; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Serbiapays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Germanypays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 10.00best | 6.50best | 1.25 |
| Betano | 9.75 | 5.60 | 1.30best |
| Betfair | 9.50 | 6.00 | 1.25 |
| Marathonbet | 9.80 | 6.15 | 1.28 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Germany at 1.30 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Serbia
- L1-2NET
- L0-2GER
- L1-2NET
- L1-2GRE
- L1-5MEX
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Germany
- D0-0GRE
- W2-0SER
- L0-1GRE
- D1-1NET
- D1-1PAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Serbia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Germany
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Serbia 1Draws 1Germany 1
- GER 2-0 SER
- GER 1-1 SER
- GER 0-1 SER
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Serbia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- Andrija Živković1G 2A6 apps
- A. Terzić0G 2A6 apps
- S. Pavlović1G 0A8 apps
Germany
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Key players
- D. Undav5G 3A6 apps
- K. Havertz4G 1A6 apps
- F. Wirtz2G 3A9 apps
Weather
- Temperature
- 7°C
- Conditions
- Rain
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 51,862
Line movement
Serbia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Germany—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Germany; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1852Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.