Sevilla vs Malaga prediction
La LigaRound 15
Sevilla17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
MalagaMost likelySevilla win · 58%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Sevilla win
Oddbert gives Sevilla a 58% chance of winning.
58%Sevilla
24%Draw
18%Malaga
In 100 matches like this, Sevilla would win about 58. In the other 42 or so, Sevilla doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sevilla win 58, Draw 24, Malaga win 18.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
58%1SevillaSevilla win
24%XDrawDraw
18%2MalagaMalaga win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Sevilla meet Malaga. The model leans toward Sevilla, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Sevilla (58%), doesn't happen in about 42 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sevilla
- D0-0ALA
- L1-3GET
- W2-0OSA
- L1-4RM
- D3-3LEV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Malaga
- L1-2RS
- L1-2RB
- D1-1ALA
- L2-5RS
- D1-1ESP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sevilla
Absence data is not available for this match.
Malaga
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sevilla
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.03last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.7last 10
- Shots
- 12.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Félix Correia2G 2A8 apps
- Y. Fofana1G 3A9 apps
- R. Ure1G 2A10 apps
Malaga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.93last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
- Adrián Niño Heredia5G 1A8 apps
- Pablo Martínez1G 2A8 apps
- Carlos Dotor2G 0A9 apps
Line movement
Sevilla—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Malaga—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Sevilla, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Pi-rating edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)2.05Expected goals (away)0.72Pi-rating edge0.08League id140Away form (away)1.27Defensive xG form (home)1.47
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.