Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Shakhtar Donetsk21:00
Wed 25 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FenerbahçeMost likelyShakhtar Donetsk win · 46%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Shakhtar Donetsk win
Oddbert gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 46% chance of winning.
46%Shakhtar Donetsk
22%Draw
32%Fenerbahçe
In 100 matches like this, Shakhtar Donetsk would win about 46. In the other 54 or so, Shakhtar Donetsk doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Shakhtar Donetsk win 46, Draw 22, Fenerbahçe win 32.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
46%1Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk win
22%XDrawDraw
32%2FenerbahçeFenerbahçe win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Shakhtar Donetsk meet Fenerbahçe. The model leans toward Shakhtar Donetsk, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Away form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Shakhtar Donetsk (46%), doesn't happen in about 54 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Shakhtar Donetsk
- L0-1SC
- L0-1INT
- W3-1AAF
- D1-1PE
- L1-2CP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Fenerbahçe
- W3-2LIV
- D2-2SP
- L0-6AV
- D1-1AR
- W2-1LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Shakhtar Donetsk
Absence data is not available for this match.
Fenerbahçe
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.07last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
- Alisson Santana3G 1A10 apps
- Kauã Elias0G 3A10 apps
- Pedrinho2G 0A7 apps
Fenerbahçe
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.59last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 4
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.5last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- M. Greenwood4G 2A10 apps
- Anderson Talisca4G 0A6 apps
- A. Brown3G 1A8 apps
Line movement
Shakhtar Donetsk—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Fenerbahçe—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Shakhtar Donetsk, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Away form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.00Away form (away)7.20Defensive xG form (away)2.78Defensive xG form (home)1.04Recent form (home)2.52Fixture congestion (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.