Sheffield Utd vs Derby prediction
ChampionshipRound 12Bramall Lane
Sheffield Utd13:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
DerbyMost likelySheffield Utd win · 39%
Prediction
39%1Sheffield Utd
29%XDraw
32%2Derby
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Sheffield Utd | Derby |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sheffield Utd
- W3-0LIN
- L1-2SC
- L0-1WOL
- W2-1BLA
- L1-3NOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Derby
- D1-1WRE
- D1-1BUR
- L1-2BIR
- L0-1WB
- L0-3WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sheffield Utd
No reported absences.
Derby
No reported absences.
Head to head
Sheffield Utd 3Draws 0Derby 1
- DER 1-2 SU
- SU 1-3 DER
- DER 0-1 SU
- SU 1-0 DER
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sheffield Utd
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.9last 10
- Shots
- 9.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Derby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Bramall Lane, Sheffield
Line movement
Sheffield Utd—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Derby—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Sheffield Utd result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)0.57Pi-rating edge0.31Home advantage (team-tuned)-2.14Defensive xG form (away)1.82Attacking xG form (away)0.96Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)7.86
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.