Sheffield Utd vs Southampton prediction
ChampionshipRound 17Bramall Lane
Sheffield Utd20:45
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SouthamptonMost likelySouthampton win · 64%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Southampton win
Oddbert gives Southampton a 64% chance of winning.
14%Sheffield Utd
22%Draw
64%Southampton
In 100 matches like this, Southampton would win about 64. In the other 36 or so, Southampton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sheffield Utd win 14, Draw 22, Southampton win 64.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
14%1Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd win
22%XDrawDraw
64%2SouthamptonSouthampton win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Southampton (64%), doesn't happen in about 36 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sheffield Utd
- L1-2CHA
- W3-2PRE
- W1-0WRE
- D1-1DER
- W1-0BC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Southampton
- L0-1PRE
- D1-1WB
- W4-1QPR
- W3-2WH
- D0-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sheffield Utd
Absence data is not available for this match.
Southampton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Sheffield Utd 0Draws 0Southampton 2
- SOU 1-0 SU
- SU 1-2 SOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sheffield Utd
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Sydie Peck4G 1A10 apps
- P. Bamford3G 0A6 apps
- B. Brereton1G 2A10 apps
Southampton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.66last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.28last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 8.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- K. Matsuki4G 1A10 apps
- F. Azaz2G 3A10 apps
- C. Larin3G 0A6 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Bramall Lane, Sheffield
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 32,702
Line movement
Sheffield Utd—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Southampton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Southampton result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-145Defensive xG form (home)0.89Attacking xG form (away)1.53What's at stake (home)0.07What's at stake (away)0.09Expected goals (home)1.26
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.