Slovenia vs Switzerland prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League B - 5Ljudski vrt
Slovenia20:45
Fri 13 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SwitzerlandMost likelySwitzerland win · 58%
Best price1.72 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Switzerland win
Oddbert gives Switzerland a 58% chance of winning.
17%Slovenia
25%Draw
58%Switzerland
In 100 matches like this, Switzerland would win about 58. In the other 42 or so, Switzerland doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Slovenia win 17, Draw 25, Switzerland win 58.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
17%1SloveniaSlovenia winmarket 16%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 25%
58%2SwitzerlandSwitzerland winmarket 59%
Our model vs market
Slovenia +0.7 ppDraw -0.4 ppSwitzerland -0.2 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Slovenia meet Switzerland. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Switzerland; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Sloveniapays 11% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Switzerlandpays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 6.00best | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 5.10 | 3.65 | 1.72best |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.80best | 1.62 |
| Marathonbet | 5.75 | 3.74 | 1.66 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Switzerland at 1.72 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Slovenia
- W2-1SCO
- L1-2SWI
- W2-0FM
- D0-0SCO
- L1-2CRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Switzerland
- W3-0FM
- W2-1SLO
- W3-0SCO
- W3-0FM
- L1-3ARG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Slovenia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Switzerland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Slovenia 0Draws 1Switzerland 2
- SWI 2-1 SLO
- SLO 0-0 SWI
- SWI 3-0 SLO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Slovenia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Aljoša Matko2G 2A6 apps
- D. Šturm1G 2A8 apps
- A. Šporar1G 1A5 apps
Switzerland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.5last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
- D. Ndoye4G 3A10 apps
- J. Manzambi4G 2A8 apps
- Z. Amdouni3G 1A8 apps
Weather
- Temperature
- 5°C
- Conditions
- Clear
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Ljudski vrt, Maribor
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 12,994
Line movement
Slovenia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Switzerland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Switzerland; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1899Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.