Southampton vs Burnley prediction
ChampionshipRound 20
Southampton21:00
Wed 9 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BurnleyMost likelySouthampton win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Southampton win
Oddbert gives Southampton a 65% chance of winning.
65%Southampton
24%Draw
11%Burnley
In 100 matches like this, Southampton would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Southampton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Southampton win 65, Draw 24, Burnley win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1SouthamptonSouthampton win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2BurnleyBurnley win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Southampton (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Southampton
- L0-1PRE
- D1-1WB
- W4-1QPR
- W3-2WH
- D0-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Burnley
- L4-5CAR
- D1-1QPR
- D0-0POR
- L1-4LIN
- L1-2WOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Southampton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Burnley
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Southampton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.66last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.28last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 8.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- K. Matsuki4G 1A10 apps
- F. Azaz2G 3A10 apps
- C. Larin3G 0A6 apps
Burnley
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.94last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- L. Ramazani4G 1A10 apps
- Lucas Pires0G 5A10 apps
- Z. Amdouni3G 0A5 apps
Line movement
Southampton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Burnley—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Southampton result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Home form (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.64Home form (home)10.8Expected goals (away)1.07Attacking xG form (away)1.53Away form (away)2.54Recent form (away)1.44
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.