Spain vs England prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 6
Spain20:45
Sun 15 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
EnglandMost likelySpain win · 61%
Best price1.58 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Spain win
Oddbert gives Spain a 61% chance of winning.
61%Spain
21%Draw
18%England
In 100 matches like this, Spain would win about 61. In the other 39 or so, Spain doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Spain win 61, Draw 21, England win 18.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
61%1SpainSpain winmarket 61%
21%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
18%2EnglandEngland winmarket 18%
Our model vs market
Spain -0.3 ppDraw +0.1 ppEngland +0.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 4 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Spain meet England. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Spain; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Spain | Draw | Englandpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58best | 4.50best | 5.30best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Spain at 1.58 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Spain (61%), doesn't happen in about 39 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Spain
- W2-1CRO
- W3-1CZE
- W4-1CRO
- W3-2ENG
- W1-0ARG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
England
- W3-0CZE
- W7-0CRO
- W2-0CZE
- L2-3SPA
- W6-4FRA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Spain
Absence data is not available for this match.
England
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Spain 3Draws 0England 1
- ENG 2-3 SPA
- SPA 2-1 ENG
- SPA 2-3 ENG
- ENG 1-2 SPA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Spain
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
- Mikel Merino5G 1A10 apps
- Lamine Yamal4G 1A10 apps
- Álex Baena2G 3A10 apps
England
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Key players
- H. Kane10G 2A9 apps
- J. Bellingham7G 5A10 apps
- A. Gordon4G 4A7 apps
Line movement
Spain—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
England—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Spain; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)2194Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.