Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Sparta Praha21:00
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AZ AlkmaarMost likelySparta Praha win · 40%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Sparta Praha win
Oddbert gives Sparta Praha a 40% chance of winning.
40%Sparta Praha
22%Draw
38%AZ Alkmaar
In 100 matches like this, Sparta Praha would win about 40. In the other 60 or so, Sparta Praha doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sparta Praha win 40, Draw 22, AZ Alkmaar win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
40%1Sparta PrahaSparta Praha win
22%XDrawDraw
38%2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Sparta Praha meet AZ Alkmaar. The model leans only slightly toward Sparta Praha in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and League id. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Sparta Praha (40%), doesn't happen in about 60 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sparta Praha
- L1-3BOU
- L0-1OP
- D1-1LIL
- W4-1ARA
- L0-3LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AZ Alkmaar
- W4-3GRO
- L1-2JUV
- L0-1AJA
- L0-2TWE
- W4-0ARA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sparta Praha
Absence data is not available for this match.
AZ Alkmaar
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Sparta Praha 0Draws 0AZ Alkmaar 2
- SP 0-4 AA
- AA 2-1 SP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sparta Praha
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.17last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.76last 7
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- J. Mercado3G 0A8 apps
- M. Rynes2G 1A5 apps
- T. Guddal2G 0A4 apps
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- M. Meerdink7G 1A10 apps
- Weslley Patati2G 1A7 apps
- V. Byskov1G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Sparta Praha—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Sparta Praha in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and League id. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)3.73League id3.00What's at stake (away)0.00Pi-rating edge-0.16Recent form (home)2.00Defensive xG form (away)1.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.