Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction
EredivisieRound 10Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Sparta Rotterdam16:45
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AjaxMost likelyAjax win · 55%
Prediction
21%1Sparta Rotterdam
24%XDraw
55%2Ajax
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sparta Rotterdam
- D3-3GAE
- L0-4HEE
- L1-4PE
- D2-2PZ
- L1-2EXC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Ajax
- D1-1NN
- D2-2EXC
- W5-1WI
- W5-1FS
- L1-3PE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sparta Rotterdam
No reported absences.
Ajax
No reported absences.
Head to head
Sparta Rotterdam 0Draws 2Ajax 2
- AJA 4-0 SR
- SR 3-3 AJA
- AJA 1-1 SR
- SR 0-2 AJA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sparta Rotterdam
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.61last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Ajax
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.33last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.2last 10
- Shots
- 22.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 8
Venue
- Venue
- Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Line movement
Sparta Rotterdam—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Ajax—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Ajax result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.90Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-216Away form (away)9.69Attacking xG form (away)2.86Home advantage (team-tuned)11.0Home form (home)2.26
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.