Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
EredivisieRound 13Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Sparta Rotterdam14:30
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AZ AlkmaarMost likelyAZ Alkmaar win · 61%
Best price1.67 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AZ Alkmaar win
Oddbert gives AZ Alkmaar a 61% chance of winning.
17%Sparta Rotterdam
22%Draw
61%AZ Alkmaar
In 100 matches like this, AZ Alkmaar would win about 61. In the other 39 or so, AZ Alkmaar doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sparta Rotterdam win 17, Draw 22, AZ Alkmaar win 61.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
17%1Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam winmarket 20%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
61%2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar winmarket 59%
Our model vs market
Sparta Rotterdam -3.0 ppDraw +0.2 ppAZ Alkmaar +2.8 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 4 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Sparta Rotterdampays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | AZ Alkmaarpays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.55best | 4.30best | 1.67best |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 4.25 | 1.63 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AZ Alkmaar at 1.67 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for AZ Alkmaar (61%), doesn't happen in about 39 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sparta Rotterdam
- L1-3ADH
- W3-2GRO
- L1-2AJA
- W3-2WI
- D3-3GAE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AZ Alkmaar
- W4-3GRO
- L1-2JUV
- L0-1AJA
- L0-2TWE
- W4-0ARA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sparta Rotterdam
Absence data is not available for this match.
AZ Alkmaar
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Sparta Rotterdam 1Draws 0AZ Alkmaar 3
- AA 3-1 SR
- SR 0-1 AA
- AA 1-2 SR
- SR 1-2 AA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sparta Rotterdam
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.88last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.74last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 10 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- M. Zonneveld7G 2A10 apps
- I. Babadi1G 3A8 apps
- J. Toornstra2G 1A7 apps
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- M. Meerdink7G 1A10 apps
- Weslley Patati2G 1A7 apps
- V. Byskov1G 2A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
- Surface
- Artificial turf
- Capacity
- 11,026
Line movement
Sparta Rotterdam—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a AZ Alkmaar result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-186Pi-rating edge-0.64Home advantage (team-tuned)10.5Attacking xG form (home)2.17Recent form (away)4.13Attacking xG form (away)2.04
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.