Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
EredivisieRound 15Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Sparta Rotterdam18:45
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
NEC NijmegenMost likelyNEC Nijmegen win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: NEC Nijmegen win
Oddbert gives NEC Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning.
31%Sparta Rotterdam
20%Draw
49%NEC Nijmegen
In 100 matches like this, NEC Nijmegen would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, NEC Nijmegen doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sparta Rotterdam win 31, Draw 20, NEC Nijmegen win 49.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam win
20%XDrawDraw
49%2NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for NEC Nijmegen (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sparta Rotterdam
- L1-3ADH
- W3-2GRO
- L1-2AJA
- W3-2WI
- D3-3GAE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
NEC Nijmegen
- W3-2UTR
- W3-1ON
- L0-1HEE
- D2-2GRO
- W4-2DZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sparta Rotterdam
Absence data is not available for this match.
NEC Nijmegen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Sparta Rotterdam 1Draws 2NEC Nijmegen 1
- SR 1-1 NN
- NN 3-1 SR
- SR 2-0 NN
- NN 1-1 SR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sparta Rotterdam
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.88last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.74last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 10 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- M. Zonneveld7G 2A10 apps
- I. Babadi1G 3A8 apps
- J. Toornstra2G 1A7 apps
NEC Nijmegen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- T. Chery3G 2A9 apps
- B. Linssen4G 0A10 apps
- Clement Bischoff3G 1A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
- Surface
- Artificial turf
- Capacity
- 11,026
Line movement
Sparta Rotterdam—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
NEC Nijmegen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a NEC Nijmegen result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.46Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-141Attacking xG form (home)2.17Home advantage (team-tuned)10.5What's at stake (away)0.00Attacking xG form (away)1.61
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.