Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction
EredivisieRound 9Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Sparta Rotterdam21:00
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Willem IIMost likelySparta Rotterdam win · 59%
Best price1.62 Onexbet
Prediction
59%1Sparta Rotterdammarket 62%
22%XDrawmarket 20%
19%2Willem IImarket 18%
Sparta Rotterdam-3.0 ppDraw+1.5 ppWillem II+1.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Sparta Rotterdampays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Willem IIpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.25best |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.55best | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Betvictor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.25 | 4.95 |
| Onexbet | 1.62best | 4.38 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.51 | 4.79 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Sparta Rotterdam at 1.62 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sparta Rotterdam
- D3-3GAE
- L0-4HEE
- L1-4PE
- D2-2PZ
- L1-2EXC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Willem II
- L1-3UTR
- L0-1FS
- L1-5AJA
- D1-1AA
- L0-3EXC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sparta Rotterdam
No reported absences.
Willem II
No reported absences.
Head to head
Sparta Rotterdam 2Draws 0Willem II 0
- SR 4-0 WI
- WI 1-2 SR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sparta Rotterdam
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.61last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Willem II
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 8
- xG against / game
- 2.17last 8
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 8
Venue
- Venue
- Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Line movement
Sparta Rotterdam—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Willem II—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Sparta Rotterdam result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.65Defensive xG form (home)1.85Pi-rating edge0.29Recent form (home)1.46Rest-days edge0.82League id88.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.