Sporting CP vs Maritimo prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13
Sporting CP17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
MaritimoMost likelySporting CP win · 80%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Sporting CP win
Oddbert gives Sporting CP a 80% chance of winning.
80%Sporting CP
12%Draw
8%Maritimo
In 100 matches like this, Sporting CP would win about 80. In the other 20 or so, Sporting CP doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sporting CP win 80, Draw 12, Maritimo win 8.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
80%1Sporting CPSporting CP win
12%XDrawDraw
8%2MaritimoMaritimo win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Sporting CP (80%), doesn't happen in about 20 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sporting CP
- W1-0MOR
- W1-0SD
- W2-0CP
- L1-2AV
- L2-3LL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Maritimo
- L0-2SC
- L0-5VS
- L1-2FP
- D1-1GV
- L1-3MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sporting CP
Absence data is not available for this match.
Maritimo
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sporting CP
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.82last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- L. Suárez9G 0A10 apps
- I. Doumbia2G 1A10 apps
- Iván Fresneda0G 3A10 apps
Maritimo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 15.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Martín Tejón1G 1A10 apps
- Maurice Osei Boakye1G 1A10 apps
- Romain Correia1G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Sporting CP—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Maritimo—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Sporting CP result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.46Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)470Expected goals (home)3.97Recent form (away)0.49What's at stake (away)0.16Defensive xG form (away)1.59
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.