Stoke City vs Birmingham prediction
ChampionshipRound 16
Stoke City16:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BirminghamMost likelyStoke City win · 40%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Stoke City win
Oddbert gives Stoke City a 40% chance of winning.
40%Stoke City
22%Draw
38%Birmingham
In 100 matches like this, Stoke City would win about 40. In the other 60 or so, Stoke City doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Stoke City win 40, Draw 22, Birmingham win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
40%1Stoke CityStoke City win
22%XDrawDraw
38%2BirminghamBirmingham win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Stoke City (40%), doesn't happen in about 60 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Stoke City
- W2-1POR
- W2-1BLA
- W2-0PRE
- D0-0BC
- W1-0DER
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Birmingham
- W2-1SWA
- W3-0MIL
- W3-1LIN
- L0-1CAR
- W3-0QPR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Stoke City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Birmingham
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Stoke City 1Draws 1Birmingham 0
- BIR 1-1 SC
- SC 1-0 BIR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Stoke City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.01last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- J. McGlynn5G 2A10 apps
- E. Galbraith0G 4A9 apps
- B. Wilmot3G 0A10 apps
Birmingham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.31last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- L. Millar4G 3A10 apps
- A. Priske5G 0A6 apps
- J. Stansfield3G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Stoke City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Birmingham—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Stoke City result here; the model's main factors are What's at stake (away) and Pi-rating edge. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (away)0.15Pi-rating edge-0.13Attacking xG form (away)1.67Defensive xG form (away)1.44Home advantage (team-tuned)46.3What's at stake (home)0.14
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.