Stoke City vs Middlesbrough prediction
ChampionshipRound 10bet365 Stadium
Stoke City21:00
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
MiddlesbroughMost likelyMiddlesbrough win · 46%
Best price1.98 Dafabet
Prediction
28%1Stoke Citymarket 26%
26%XDrawmarket 25%
46%2Middlesbroughmarket 49%
Stoke City+2.2 ppDraw+1.0 ppMiddlesbrough-3.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Stoke Citypays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Middlesbroughpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.75best | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| Betvictor | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.85 | 1.98best |
| Marathonbet | 3.50 | 3.68 | 1.93 |
| Onexbet | 3.50 | 3.68 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.48 | 3.95best | 1.95 |
| Sbo | 3.12 | 3.20 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Middlesbrough at 1.98 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Stoke City
- W2-1BOL
- W2-1SU
- W2-1WAT
- D1-1CAR
- W4-0CHA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Middlesbrough
- W1-0WOL
- D2-2BIR
- D2-2MIL
- W4-3NOR
- W1-0QPR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Stoke City
No reported absences.
Middlesbrough
No reported absences.
Head to head
Stoke City 0Draws 1Middlesbrough 3
- SC 1-2 MID
- MID 0-0 SC
- SC 1-3 MID
- MID 2-0 SC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Stoke City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.98last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 14.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Middlesbrough
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.78last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.05last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Elliot Bell
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent
Line movement
Stoke City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Middlesbrough—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Middlesbrough result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and What's at stake (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-64.1What's at stake (home)0.02What's at stake (away)0.12Attacking xG form (home)1.15Recent form (home)8.62Home form (home)8.07
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.