SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction
BundesligaRound 6
SV Elversberg15:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FC AugsburgMost likelyFC Augsburg win · 37%
Best price2.72 Betano
Prediction
36%1SV Elversbergmarket 39%
27%XDrawmarket 25%
37%2FC Augsburgmarket 36%
SV Elversberg-3.0 ppDraw+2.6 ppFC Augsburg+0.4 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | SV Elversbergpays 6% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | FC Augsburgpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.72best |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Betvictor | 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.82 | 2.64 |
| Onexbet | 2.55best | 3.92best | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.74 | 2.70 |
| Sbo | 2.33 | 3.47 | 2.42 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FC Augsburg at 2.72 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SV Elversberg
- L0-1UB
- D0-0FS0
- L1-2BM
- W4-3BM
- W3-2BL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FC Augsburg
- D2-2BM
- L2-3WB
- D2-2BL
- W4-1EF
- W3-0FS0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SV Elversberg
No reported absences.
FC Augsburg
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SV Elversberg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 7
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 7
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.93last 5
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 7
- BTTS
- 5 / 7
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 7
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 7
- Shots
- 9.9last 7
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 7
- Fouls
- 11.1last 7
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 7
FC Augsburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.86last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.0last 10
- Fouls
- 8.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Line movement
SV Elversberg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FC Augsburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FC Augsburg result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-65.0Defensive xG form (away)2.97League id78.0Attacking xG form (away)1.91Defensive xG form (home)1.93Pi-rating edge0.13
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.