SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
BundesligaRound 8
SV Elversberg20:30
Fri 30 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FSV Mainz 05Most likelyFSV Mainz 05 win · 41%
Prediction
31%1SV Elversberg
28%XDraw
41%2FSV Mainz 05
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | SV Elversberg | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SV Elversberg
- L0-1UB
- D0-0FS0
- L1-2BM
- W4-3BM
- W3-2BL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FSV Mainz 05
- L3-4BL
- W4-3BM
- L1-3EF
- W5-0HS
- D0-0SP0
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SV Elversberg
No reported absences.
FSV Mainz 05
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SV Elversberg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 7
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 7
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.93last 5
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 7
- BTTS
- 5 / 7
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 7
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 7
- Shots
- 9.9last 7
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 7
- Fouls
- 11.1last 7
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 7
FSV Mainz 05
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Line movement
SV Elversberg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FSV Mainz 05—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a FSV Mainz 05 result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Away form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-68.0Away form (away)10.5Attacking xG form (away)2.37Pi-rating edge-0.12League id78.0Defensive xG form (away)1.58
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.