Swansea vs Bolton prediction
ChampionshipRound 20
Swansea20:45
Tue 8 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BoltonMost likelySwansea win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Swansea win
Oddbert gives Swansea a 65% chance of winning.
65%Swansea
24%Draw
11%Bolton
In 100 matches like this, Swansea would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Swansea doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Swansea win 65, Draw 24, Bolton win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1SwanseaSwansea win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2BoltonBolton win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Swansea (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Swansea
- L1-2BIR
- L1-3POR
- W4-0BLA
- L0-5QPR
- L0-1WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bolton
- L1-3DER
- W1-0CHA
- L2-3BC
- L1-5MID
- D0-0SOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Swansea
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bolton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Swansea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.54last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.61last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Key players
- M. Yeo3G 0A7 apps
- Z. Vipotnik3G 0A10 apps
- Joseph Okopu1G 2A6 apps
Bolton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.90last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Gaizka Larrazabal1G 4A10 apps
- S. Dalby4G 0A10 apps
- Ruben Rodrigues2G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Swansea—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bolton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Swansea result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and What's at stake (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.31What's at stake (away)0.11Expected goals (home)2.04Recent form (home)1.90Defensive xG form (home)1.81Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)240
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.