Swansea vs Cardiff prediction
ChampionshipRound 18
Swansea13:00
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
CardiffMost likelySwansea win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Swansea win
Oddbert gives Swansea a 56% chance of winning.
56%Swansea
21%Draw
23%Cardiff
In 100 matches like this, Swansea would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Swansea doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Swansea win 56, Draw 21, Cardiff win 23.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
56%1SwanseaSwansea win
21%XDrawDraw
23%2CardiffCardiff win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Swansea (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Swansea
- L1-2BIR
- L1-3POR
- W4-0BLA
- L0-5QPR
- L0-1WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Cardiff
- W5-4BUR
- D3-3WH
- L0-3WOL
- W1-0BIR
- D2-2MID
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Swansea
Absence data is not available for this match.
Cardiff
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Swansea 0Draws 1Cardiff 1
- CAR 3-0 SWA
- SWA 1-1 CAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Swansea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.54last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.61last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Key players
- M. Yeo3G 0A7 apps
- Z. Vipotnik3G 0A10 apps
- Joseph Okopu1G 2A6 apps
Cardiff
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 17.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- J. Moylan9G 3A10 apps
- O. Tanner3G 3A10 apps
- Y. Salech4G 1A7 apps
Line movement
Swansea—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Cardiff—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Swansea result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and What's at stake (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.37What's at stake (away)0.06Recent form (home)1.90What's at stake (home)0.11Recent form (away)5.75Expected goals (home)1.96
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.