Torino vs Monza prediction
Serie ARound 8
Torino20:45
Fri 23 Oct
Prediction T-24h
MonzaMost likelyTorino win · 48%
Best price2.15 Onexbet
Prediction
49%1Torinomarket 46%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
23%2Monzamarket 27%
Torino+2.4 ppDraw+0.6 ppMonza-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Torinopays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Monzapays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.52 | 3.54 |
| Onexbet | 2.15best | 3.62best | 3.64best |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.45 | 3.54 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Torino at 2.15 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
9.24units · 0.9% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Torino
- D1-1BOL
- L0-2AR
- W2-1FIO
- L1-2SAS
- L1-2AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Monza
- L1-3LAZ
- W2-1SAS
- L2-3LEC
- D1-1PAR
- L2-3UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Torino
No reported absences.
Monza
No reported absences.
Head to head
Torino 1Draws 1Monza 0
- MON 0-2 TOR
- TOR 1-1 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Torino
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.75last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Monza
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.50last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Line movement
Torino—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Monza—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Torino result here, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and League id. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Rest-days edge22.0League id135Attacking xG form (away)1.93Defensive xG form (away)1.17Defensive xG form (home)1.69Home advantage (team-tuned)22.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.