Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ArsenalMost likelyArsenal win · 61%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Arsenal win
Oddbert gives Arsenal a 61% chance of winning.
18%Tottenham
21%Draw
61%Arsenal
In 100 matches like this, Arsenal would win about 61. In the other 39 or so, Arsenal doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Tottenham win 18, Draw 21, Arsenal win 61.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
18%1TottenhamTottenham win
21%XDrawDraw
61%2ArsenalArsenal win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Tottenham meet Arsenal. The model leans toward Arsenal, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Arsenal (61%), doesn't happen in about 39 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Tottenham
- L0-1LEE
- W2-0CP
- W2-0CHE
- W3-1COV
- D1-1MU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arsenal
- W1-0HC
- W2-1SP
- W1-0LIV
- W2-0EVE
- D2-2BM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Tottenham
Absence data is not available for this match.
Arsenal
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Tottenham 0Draws 0Arsenal 4
- TOT 1-4 ARS
- ARS 4-1 TOT
- ARS 2-1 TOT
- TOT 0-1 ARS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Tottenham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.20last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.22last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 13.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- M. Kudus0G 3A9 apps
- J. van Hecke2G 0A10 apps
- D. Solanke1G 1A10 apps
Arsenal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.61last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- D. Rice1G 4A10 apps
- V. Gyökeres1G 3A9 apps
- B. Saka2G 1A6 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 62,850
Line movement
Tottenham—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arsenal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Arsenal, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.07Home advantage (team-tuned)26.3Expected goals (home)0.61Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-301Recent form (away)8.67Defensive xG form (home)0.89
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.