Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction
Ligue 1Round 8Stadium Municipal
Toulouse17:15
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Estac TroyesMost likelyToulouse win · 54%
Best price1.75 Onexbet
Prediction
54%1Toulousemarket 56%
26%XDrawmarket 23%
20%2Estac Troyesmarket 21%
Toulouse-2.8 ppDraw+3.0 ppEstac Troyes-0.2 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Toulousepays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Estac Troyespays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Onexbet | 1.75best | 4.21best | 4.88best |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.06 | 4.42 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Toulouse at 1.75 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Toulouse
- D2-2MON
- W3-2LH
- D2-2LOR
- L0-1LIL
- D2-2SB2
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Estac Troyes
- L0-2MAR
- L0-2ANG
- L0-2LIL
- L2-6STR
- W2-1LOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Toulouse
No reported absences.
Estac Troyes
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Toulouse
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 16.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Estac Troyes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 6
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.03last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 5
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 6
- BTTS
- 2 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.3last 6
- Shots
- 14.8last 6
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 6
- Fouls
- 12.3last 6
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 5
Venue
- Venue
- Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
Line movement
Toulouse—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Estac Troyes—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Toulouse result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)3.34Attacking xG form (away)2.99Attacking xG form (home)1.93Recent form (home)4.29Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)214Home advantage (team-tuned)29.4
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.