Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Ligue 1Round 13Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse17:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Paris Saint GermainMost likelyParis Saint Germain win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Paris Saint Germain win
Oddbert gives Paris Saint Germain a 65% chance of winning.
16%Toulouse
19%Draw
65%Paris Saint Germain
In 100 matches like this, Paris Saint Germain would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Paris Saint Germain doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Toulouse win 16, Draw 19, Paris Saint Germain win 65.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
16%1ToulouseToulouse win
19%XDrawDraw
65%2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Toulouse meet Paris Saint Germain. The model leans toward Paris Saint Germain, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Paris Saint Germain (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Toulouse
- W3-1STR
- L0-2MAR
- D0-0ET
- W3-0LM
- D2-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Paris Saint Germain
- W1-0ET
- W6-0VIL
- W5-1LH
- W2-0LYO
- W4-2BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Toulouse
Absence data is not available for this match.
Paris Saint Germain
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Toulouse 0Draws 0Paris Saint Germain 4
- PSG 3-1 TOU
- TOU 3-6 PSG
- TOU 0-1 PSG
- PSG 3-0 TOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Toulouse
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 15.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- C. Tengstedt5G 1A8 apps
- C. Cásseres0G 6A10 apps
- T. Jørgensen3G 1A10 apps
Paris Saint Germain
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.67last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.45last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 19.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 9.6last 10
- Fouls
- 7.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 0.8last 10
Key players
- D. Doué4G 3A9 apps
- A. Hakimi3G 3A8 apps
- Senny Mayulu3G 2A5 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 33,150
Line movement
Toulouse—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Paris Saint Germain—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Paris Saint Germain, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.49Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-369What's at stake (away)0.00Recent form (away)9.90Expected goals (home)1.02Attacking xG form (away)2.47
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.