Toulouse vs Rennes prediction
Ligue 1Round 12Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse17:15
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
RennesMost likelyRennes win · 41%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Rennes win
Oddbert gives Rennes a 41% chance of winning.
33%Toulouse
26%Draw
41%Rennes
In 100 matches like this, Rennes would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, Rennes doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Toulouse win 33, Draw 26, Rennes win 41.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
33%1ToulouseToulouse win
26%XDrawDraw
41%2RennesRennes win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Toulouse meet Rennes. The model leans only slightly toward Rennes in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Rennes (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Toulouse
- W3-1STR
- L0-2MAR
- D0-0ET
- W3-0LM
- D2-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Rennes
- L1-2LIL
- D0-0OP
- L2-5NIC
- W3-0STR
- D2-2JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Toulouse
Absence data is not available for this match.
Rennes
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Toulouse 2Draws 1Rennes 1
- REN 1-0 TOU
- TOU 2-2 REN
- TOU 2-1 REN
- REN 0-2 TOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Toulouse
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 15.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- C. Tengstedt5G 1A8 apps
- C. Cásseres0G 6A10 apps
- T. Jørgensen3G 1A10 apps
Rennes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.84last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- B. Dia6G 0A10 apps
- E. Lepaul4G 0A5 apps
- S. Szymański3G 0A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 33,150
Line movement
Toulouse—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Rennes—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Rennes in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Attacking xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.93Pi-rating edge-0.02Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-49.0Attacking xG form (away)1.63Recent form (away)2.78Home advantage (team-tuned)28.6
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.