Udinese vs Lecce prediction
Serie ARound 7
Udinese12:30
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LecceMost likelyUdinese win · 49%
Best price1.95 Onexbet
Prediction
49%1Udinesemarket 52%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
24%2Leccemarket 22%
Udinese-3.0 ppDraw+0.8 ppLecce+2.2 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Udinesepays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Leccepays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.45 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Betvictor | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.88 | 3.55 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.55 | 4.25 |
| Onexbet | 1.95best | 3.66best | 4.38best |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.59 | 4.27 |
| Sbo | 1.85 | 3.21 | 3.62 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Udinese at 1.95 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Udinese
- L0-1CAG
- L3-5INT
- L1-2LAZ
- W3-2MON
- D1-1COM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lecce
- L1-2BOL
- L0-3AM
- W3-2MON
- L0-1CAG
- L0-4AR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Udinese
No reported absences.
Lecce
No reported absences.
Head to head
Udinese 3Draws 0Lecce 1
- LEC 2-1 UDI
- UDI 3-2 LEC
- LEC 0-1 UDI
- UDI 1-0 LEC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Udinese
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.47last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.46last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Lecce
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.88last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.07last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 9.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Line movement
Udinese—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lecce—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Udinese result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Rest-days edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)3.51Rest-days edge22.0Defensive xG form (away)2.28Pi-rating edge0.34Attacking xG form (home)1.93What's at stake (away)0.21
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.