Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction
BundesligaRound 8
Union Berlin15:30
Sun 1 Nov
Prediction T-24h
1. FC KölnMost likelyUnion Berlin win · 40%
Prediction
40%1Union Berlin
29%XDraw
31%21. FC Köln
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Union Berlin
- W1-0SE
- L0-7BM
- L1-3FS0
- L0-4BL
- D3-3EF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
1. FC Köln
- W2-1BM
- L1-2HS
- D1-1WB
- L1-4VS
- W3-21H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Union Berlin
No reported absences.
1. FC Köln
No reported absences.
Head to head
Union Berlin 1Draws 11. FC Köln 0
- UB 2-2 1FK
- 1FK 0-1 UB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Union Berlin
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.56last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.97last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.5last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
1. FC Köln
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.78last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.94last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 10 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 8.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Line movement
Union Berlin—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
1. FC Köln—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Union Berlin result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Fixture congestion (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)4.29Fixture congestion (home)0.00Recent form (home)3.19Defensive xG form (home)2.22Attacking xG form (away)4.99Home form (home)5.50
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.