Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
BundesligaRound 6
Union Berlin15:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Borussia DortmundMost likelyBorussia Dortmund win · 59%
Best price1.73 Onexbet
Prediction
19%1Union Berlinmarket 20%
22%XDrawmarket 22%
59%2Borussia Dortmundmarket 58%
Union Berlin-0.5 ppDraw+0.3 ppBorussia Dortmund+0.2 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Union Berlinpays 9% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Borussia Dortmundpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 5.00best | 4.15 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| Betvictor | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.30 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 4.33 | 1.68 |
| Onexbet | 4.72 | 4.45best | 1.73best |
| Pinnacle | 4.75 | 4.41 | 1.67 |
| Sbo | 4.15 | 3.86 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
4.65units · 0.5% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Union Berlin
- W1-0SE
- L0-7BM
- L1-3FS0
- L0-4BL
- D3-3EF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Borussia Dortmund
- D2-2WB
- W1-0VS
- W3-0SP0
- W3-2VIL
- W3-21H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Union Berlin
No reported absences.
Borussia Dortmund
No reported absences.
Head to head
Union Berlin 1Draws 0Borussia Dortmund 3
- UB 0-3 BD
- BD 3-0 UB
- BD 6-0 UB
- UB 2-1 BD
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Union Berlin
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.56last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.97last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.5last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Borussia Dortmund
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.04last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.07last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.0last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Line movement
Union Berlin—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Borussia Dortmund—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Borussia Dortmund result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.97Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-266Away form (away)9.12Defensive xG form (home)2.22Attacking xG form (away)2.07Rest-days edge-0.79
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.