Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV prediction
BundesligaRound 12
Union Berlin15:30
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Hamburger SVMost likelyUnion Berlin win · 39%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Union Berlin win
Oddbert gives Union Berlin a 39% chance of winning.
39%Union Berlin
27%Draw
34%Hamburger SV
In 100 matches like this, Union Berlin would win about 39. In the other 61 or so, Union Berlin doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Union Berlin win 39, Draw 27, Hamburger SV win 34.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
39%1Union BerlinUnion Berlin win
27%XDrawDraw
34%2Hamburger SVHamburger SV win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Union Berlin meet Hamburger SV. The model leans only slightly toward Union Berlin in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and What's at stake (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Union Berlin (39%), doesn't happen in about 61 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Union Berlin
- L0-2SF
- D1-11FK
- D1-1FA
- D0-0BD
- W1-0SE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Hamburger SV
- W3-1BM
- L1-3EF
- L0-1SP0
- W1-0VS
- W3-21H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Union Berlin
Absence data is not available for this match.
Hamburger SV
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Union Berlin 0Draws 1Hamburger SV 1
- HS 3-2 UB
- UB 0-0 HS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Union Berlin
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.7last 10
Key players
- T. Skarke2G 1A10 apps
- A. Ilić2G 0A2 apps
- J. Haberer2G 0A9 apps
Hamburger SV
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- A. Grønbæk1G 4A9 apps
- M. Muheim3G 1A6 apps
- Y. Poulsen2G 0A8 apps
Line movement
Union Berlin—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Hamburger SV—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Union Berlin in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and What's at stake (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)1.69What's at stake (home)0.14Pi-rating edge0.01What's at stake (away)0.08Expected goals (home)1.38Defensive xG form (home)1.37
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.