Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig prediction
BundesligaRound 10
Union Berlin15:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
RB LeipzigMost likelyRB Leipzig win · 57%
Best price1.62 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: RB Leipzig win
Oddbert gives RB Leipzig a 57% chance of winning.
21%Union Berlin
22%Draw
57%RB Leipzig
In 100 matches like this, RB Leipzig would win about 57. In the other 43 or so, RB Leipzig doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Union Berlin win 21, Draw 22, RB Leipzig win 57.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
21%1Union BerlinUnion Berlin winmarket 19%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
57%2RB LeipzigRB Leipzig winmarket 60%
Our model vs market
Union Berlin +1.9 ppDraw +1.1 ppRB Leipzig -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 8 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Union Berlin meet RB Leipzig. The model leans toward RB Leipzig, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Union Berlinpays 9% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | RB Leipzigpays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 5.00best | 4.35 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 4.90 | 4.55best | 1.62best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — RB Leipzig at 1.62 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for RB Leipzig (57%), doesn't happen in about 43 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Union Berlin
- L0-2SF
- D1-11FK
- D1-1FA
- D0-0BD
- W1-0SE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
RB Leipzig
- W5-2FA
- L2-3MC
- W2-0FS0
- W4-0SE
- L1-4RM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Union Berlin
Absence data is not available for this match.
RB Leipzig
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Union Berlin 1Draws 2RB Leipzig 1
- RL 3-1 UB
- UB 3-1 RL
- UB 0-0 RL
- RL 0-0 UB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Union Berlin
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.7last 10
Key players
- T. Skarke2G 1A10 apps
- A. Ilić2G 0A2 apps
- J. Haberer2G 0A9 apps
RB Leipzig
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- A. Nusa4G 7A10 apps
- C. Nkunku5G 2A8 apps
- B. Gruda1G 5A9 apps
Line movement
Union Berlin—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
RB Leipzig—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward RB Leipzig, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.48Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-158What's at stake (home)0.17Rest-days edge-1.08Expected goals (home)1.14Home advantage (team-tuned)38.5
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.