Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Union St. Gilloise18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Lech PoznanMost likelyUnion St. Gilloise win · 73%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Union St. Gilloise win
Oddbert gives Union St. Gilloise a 73% chance of winning.
73%Union St. Gilloise
14%Draw
13%Lech Poznan
In 100 matches like this, Union St. Gilloise would win about 73. In the other 27 or so, Union St. Gilloise doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Union St. Gilloise win 73, Draw 14, Lech Poznan win 13.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
73%1Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise win
14%XDrawDraw
13%2Lech PoznanLech Poznan win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Union St. Gilloise meet Lech Poznan. The model leans toward Union St. Gilloise, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Defensive xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Union St. Gilloise (73%), doesn't happen in about 27 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Union St. Gilloise
- W2-1CV
- W4-0HBS
- D1-1RS
- W3-0PLZ
- L2-3BOD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lech Poznan
- L1-3BEN
- D1-1SUN
- L0-4BL
- L0-4CP
- D2-2FT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Union St. Gilloise
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lech Poznan
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Union St. Gilloise
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.56last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.29last 7
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 9
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- A. Khalaili3G 0A4 apps
- Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho3G 0A7 apps
- B. Zeneli2G 1A5 apps
Lech Poznan
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.18last 3
- xG against / game
- 3.45last 3
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.0last 9
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
Player data from 6 of 10 matches
- P. Wålemark2G 0A6 apps
- L. Bengtsson2G 0A5 apps
- T. Yegbe1G 0A6 apps
Line movement
Union St. Gilloise—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lech Poznan—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Union St. Gilloise, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Defensive xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)5.02Defensive xG form (away)4.18Defensive xG form (home)3.60What's at stake (home)0.00Recent form (away)1.22Attacking xG form (away)3.03
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.