Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle prediction
EredivisieRound 10Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht16:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
PEC ZwolleMost likelyUtrecht win · 56%
Best price1.69 Onexbet
Prediction
56%1Utrechtmarket 59%
24%XDrawmarket 21%
20%2PEC Zwollemarket 20%
Utrecht-2.6 ppDraw+3.0 ppPEC Zwolle-0.4 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Utrechtpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | PEC Zwollepays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.15 | 4.85best |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Onexbet | 1.69best | 4.34best | 4.54 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Utrecht at 1.69 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Utrecht
- W3-1WI
- L0-5FEY
- W2-1EXC
- D3-3GAE
- L1-6PE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PEC Zwolle
- L0-1CAM
- L0-3GRO
- L0-7FEY
- D2-2SR
- L1-3NN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Utrecht
No reported absences.
PEC Zwolle
No reported absences.
Head to head
Utrecht 2Draws 2PEC Zwolle 0
- UTR 1-1 PZ
- PZ 0-2 UTR
- PZ 3-3 UTR
- UTR 1-0 PZ
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Utrecht
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.82last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 16.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
PEC Zwolle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.93last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.95last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 10.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 11.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 7
Venue
- Venue
- Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Line movement
Utrecht—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PEC Zwolle—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Utrecht result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.86Defensive xG form (away)1.97What's at stake (home)0.02League id88.0Defensive xG form (home)2.01Home advantage (team-tuned)37.1
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.