Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction
La LigaRound 9Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia21:00
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Athletic ClubMost likelyAthletic Club win · 43%
Best price2.18 Onexbet
Prediction
29%1Valenciamarket 27%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
43%2Athletic Clubmarket 46%
Valencia+2.8 ppDraw+0.2 ppAthletic Club-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Valenciapays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Athletic Clubpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.40 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betvictor | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.35 | 2.14 |
| Marathonbet | 3.52 | 3.48 | 2.12 |
| Onexbet | 3.62 | 3.58best | 2.18best |
| Pinnacle | 3.75best | 3.48 | 2.08 |
| Sbo | 3.16 | 2.97 | 2.09 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Athletic Club at 2.18 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Valencia
- D2-2RS
- L2-3RS
- W1-0ALA
- L0-1SEV
- L0-5BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Athletic Club
- D0-0ALA
- D1-1ELC
- W3-0AM
- W2-0CV
- L0-2BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Valencia
No reported absences.
Athletic Club
No reported absences.
Head to head
Valencia 2Draws 0Athletic Club 2
- AC 0-1 VAL
- VAL 2-0 AC
- VAL 0-1 AC
- AC 1-0 VAL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Valencia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.55last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Dani Raba1G 0A1 apps
- David Otorbi1G 0A1 apps
- Justin De Haas0G 1A1 apps
Athletic Club
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.13last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
Line movement
Valencia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Athletic Club—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Athletic Club result here, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Rest-days edge-22.2Defensive xG form (home)2.01Goal drought (away)1.00Fixture congestion (away)0.00Pi-rating edge-0.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)39.5
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.