Valencia vs Osasuna prediction
La LigaRound 14Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia17:00
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
OsasunaMost likelyValencia win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Valencia win
Oddbert gives Valencia a 44% chance of winning.
44%Valencia
27%Draw
29%Osasuna
In 100 matches like this, Valencia would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Valencia doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Valencia win 44, Draw 27, Osasuna win 29.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1ValenciaValencia win
27%XDrawDraw
29%2OsasunaOsasuna win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Valencia meet Osasuna. The model leans only slightly toward Valencia in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Valencia (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Valencia
- L0-3RM
- W1-0ELC
- L1-2VIL
- D0-0AC
- D2-2RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Osasuna
- D1-1AC
- L1-2DLC
- L0-2SEV
- W2-0RS
- L2-5RB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Valencia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Osasuna
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Valencia 1Draws 2Osasuna 1
- VAL 1-0 OSA
- OSA 1-0 VAL
- OSA 3-3 VAL
- VAL 0-0 OSA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Valencia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.7last 10
- Shots
- 9.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
- U. Sadiq2G 0A3 apps
- Javi Guerra0G 2A10 apps
- Luis Rioja1G 0A7 apps
Osasuna
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.72last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 10
- Fouls
- 14.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.0last 10
Key players
- A. Budimir7G 0A10 apps
- Catena1G 1A9 apps
- Moi Gómez0G 2A7 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 55,000
Line movement
Valencia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Osasuna—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Valencia in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.31Attacking xG form (away)1.52Away form (away)0.96What's at stake (away)0.15Home form (home)1.60League id140
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.