Valencia vs Villarreal prediction
La LigaRound 10Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia18:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
VillarrealMost likelyVillarreal win · 45%
Best price2.10 William Hill
Prediction
29%1Valenciamarket 27%
26%XDrawmarket 25%
45%2Villarrealmarket 48%
Valencia+2.2 ppDraw+0.8 ppVillarreal-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Valenciapays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Villarrealpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.55 | 3.72 | 2.03 |
| Onexbet | 3.64best | 3.82best | 2.09 |
| Pinnacle | 3.49 | 3.79 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.10best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Villarreal at 2.10 (William Hill).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Valencia
- D2-2RS
- L2-3RS
- W1-0ALA
- L0-1SEV
- L0-5BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Villarreal
- L0-1RM
- W3-1LEV
- W3-1MAL
- L1-2RB
- L2-3BD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Valencia
No reported absences.
Villarreal
No reported absences.
Head to head
Valencia 0Draws 2Villarreal 2
- VIL 2-1 VAL
- VAL 0-2 VIL
- VIL 1-1 VAL
- VAL 1-1 VIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Valencia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.55last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Dani Raba1G 0A1 apps
- David Otorbi1G 0A1 apps
- Justin De Haas0G 1A1 apps
Villarreal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.07last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
Line movement
Valencia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Villarreal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Villarreal result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.29Attacking xG form (away)2.29League id140Home form (home)2.85Home advantage (team-tuned)64.4Rest-days edge-1.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.